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In January 2006, the Western Governors' Association released its 67-page
"Geothermal Task Force Report."
The Geothermal Task Force is one of eight that comprise the Western
Governors' Association (WGA) Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory
Committee (CDEAC). It was created to review the geothermal resources of
the states in the Western Governors' Association region.
Towards that end, on July 25, 2005, two-dozen members of the geothermal
community met in Reno, Nevada, to assess the potential for commercial
development of roughly 140 known geothermal sites.
The Task Force also estimated the economics of developing these sites
for
commercial power production for projects that could be on-line in a
timeframe extending to 2015.
Finally, the Task Force compiled a profile of recommendations for
interstate policy and regulatory frameworks to induce renewable energy
development in the western states by 2015.
The conclusions of the Task Force include:
Although geothermal power plants have been producing electricity for
decades, only a small fraction of geothermal potential has been tapped.
With new technology and rising energy costs, geothermal resources that
historically have not been economical to develop will become increasingly
more attractive to investors and utilities. New geothermal technologies
for direct use, such as for greenhouses, district heating, and fish farms,
can also play an important role in reducing a community's overall need
for
other energy supplies.
The western states share a capacity of almost 13,000 megawatts (MW) of
geothermal energy that can be developed on specific sites within a
reasonable timeframe (e.g., by 2025). Geothermal power plants, ranging
from 10 to over 200 MW (depending on the resource), can supply enough
electricity to meet the needs of 10,000 to 200,00 homes respectively.
Of these, 5,600 MW are considered by the geothermal industry to be viable
for commercial development within the next ten years; i.e., by about 2015.
(To put this into perspective, the U.S. had 2,828 MW of geothermal power
capacity on-line in 2005.) This is a commercially achievable capacity
for
new generation and does not include the mch larger potential of unknown,
undiscovered resources.
The 5,600 MW is estimated to be developable at busbar costs in a range
of
levelized costs of energy (LCOE) of about 5.3 to 7.9 cents per
kilowatt-hour (kWh). This assumes commercial project financing conditions
and the extension of a production tax credit (PTC) consistent with current
federal law. Lacking a PTC t catalyze renewable energy development, LCOE
values would be 2.3 cents per kilowatt-hour higher.
The state-by-state capacity subtotals are provided below. Numbers in
(parenthesis) reflect the number of sites in each state.
State Capacity (MW)
Alaska (3) 20
Arizona (2) 20
California (25) 2,400
Colorado (9) 20
Hawaii (3) 70
Idaho (6) 860
Nevada (63) 1,500
New Mexico (6) 80
Oregon (11) 380
Utah (5) 230
Washington (5) 50
TOTAL 5,630 MW
Data for Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas,
and
Wyoming has not yet been analyzed but will be added.
New geothermal power capacity of 5,600 MW could add 9,580 new full-time
jobs from geothermal power facilities, and also generate an additional
36,064 person-years of construction and manufacturing employment. An
economic multiplier effect would increase these numbers further.
New power facilities would also increase state and local tax and royalty
income. For example, in 2003, the Geysers Geothermal Field in California,
with almost 1,000 MW of geothermal power generation capacity in place,
paid $11 million in property taxes to two counties, while royalty venues
added several million dollars more to state and county revenues.
If actual future markets sustain energy costs up to 20 cents per
kilowatt-hour or the risk and cost of development is reduced
substantially, the Task Force estimates that know resources could support
new capacity of about 13,000 MW.
The Task Force goes on to note that geothermal power is a reliable,
continuously available (24 hours/day - 7 days/week) baseload energy
source. Except for short outages to repair equipment and conduct
overhauls every few years, geothermal facilities have very high
availability and capacity factors; they typically operate 90 to 98 percent
of the time. Geothermal's high reliability compares favorably to
conventional power plants.
Moreover, geothermal energy is one of the cleanest resources for
generating electricity. Compared to fossil fuels, geothermal utilizes
less land, consumes and discharges less water, has fewer air emissions,
and generates fewer wastes. Geothermal particularly stands out when the
relative air emissions from geothermal plants and fossil fuel plans are
compared. In contrast to fossil fuel plants, geothermal plants only emit
small amounts, if any, of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur
dioxides, and nitrogen oxides. Standing as a testament to this point,
the
air basin downwind of the largest geothermal field in the world, The
Geysers, is the only air district in California to be in attainment with
all federal and state ambient air quality standards for over 18 years.
To tap the potential described by the Task Force, its members outlined
a
series of priority policy proposals.
MARKET DEVELOPMENT:
The marketplace needs to support the continued development of geothermal
resources.
1.) Federal and state tax credits are important to reduce the risk and
high capital cost of new projects. The federal production tax credit (and
clean renewable bonding authority) should be made permanent, or at least
extended ten years.
2.) State laws and regulations should promote a continuing series of
opportunities for power purchase agreements between developers and
utilities. Whether generated through Renewable Portfolio Standards,
Integrated Resource Planning, or other mechanisms, power purchase
contracts are fundamental drivers of the market.
3.) Federal and state law and regulations should provide incentives for
utilities and others to enter into long-term contracts for renewable
power. Accounting and regulatory standards should treat renewable power
contracts as benefits instead of liabilities, and power purchase contracts
should have he backing of the government to ensure their credit
worthiness.
TIMELY PERMITTING AND ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS:
Geothermal projects should be prioritized to ensure that permitting,
leasing, and environmental reviews are completed in a timely and efficient
manner.
1.) Federal, state, and local agencies should coordinate resources and
requirements. Agencies should be designated to take the lead on specific
issues to avoid duplication, and once issues are resolved, they should
not
be revisited without cause.
2.) A critical path for new projects should be defined as part of this
cooperative effort, and timeframes for key agency decisions along the
pathway should be established.
TRANSMISSION ACESS AND ADEQUACY:
The Western Governors should lead the process to ensure that adequate
transmission is available for the identified resources.
1.) There should be consistent Western state policies on inter-connection
to the grid that facilitate new geothermal (and other renewable) power
development.
2.) A fee to support the cost of new transmission could be set that would
spread the cost across all states, parties, and technologies on a capacity
basis.
3.) Both inter- and intra-state transmission is needed to support the
identified resources and should be fast-tracked for permitting and
environmental reviews.
FEDERAL PROGRAM SUPPORT:
Continuing support from key federal agencies is needed to achieve the
2015
goals. Federal programs should be coordinated with state agencies.
1.) As the National Research Council concluded in its study "Renewable
Power Pathways, 2000", given the enormous potential of the resource
base,
geothermal research by the U.S. Department of Energy should be increased,
particularly into technologies that can reduce risk, reduce costs, or
expand the accessible resource base.
2.) Better resource information is needed. The USGS' new resource
assessment and DOE's cost-shared drilling and exploration technology
efforts should be priorities.
The U.S. Department of Energy's "GeoPowering the West" initiative
should
continue to support state and local governments, Indiana Tribes, and other
seeking to utilize the West's untapped geothermal resources.
# # # # # #
The full "Geothermal Task Force Report" can be found at:
http://www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/Geothermal-full.pdf
The CDEAC will review this report as well as all the other subcommittees'
final reports, and develop a comprehensive set of recommendations for
the
Governors to consider at their June 2006 Annual Meeting.
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